CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-01-30T17:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-01-30T17:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36727/-1
CME Note: Faint partial-halo CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, which remains visible into the C3 field of view. Overlaps with CME:2025-01-30T16:12Z, which is much more well-defined in coronagraph imagery. This CME is not captured by STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which started at 2025-01-30T15:09Z. The source of this CME is a distinct set of opening field lines and post-eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 94/171/193 around 2025-01-30T14:25Z located at approx. S15E10, as part of the same filament eruption which sourced CME:2025-01-30T16:12Z, which was seen beginning at approx. 2025-01-30T13:49Z in SDO AIA 304, spanning approx. S05E05 to S40E40. Potential arrival signature: characterized by a sheath (no shock) beginning at 2025-02-01T22:25Z and following a coronal hole high speed stream, based on an enhancement in solar wind speed and density (but not temperature) according to Sanchita Pal and Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS group. A much more pronounced flux rope signature is visible around 2025-02-02T16:08Z in which a smooth rotation and separation of magnetic field components is observed, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 11nT. As this signature overlaps with waning effects from the 2025-01-31 coronal hole high speed stream, there is little change in solar wind speed observed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-01T22:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.33
Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-02-01T19:16Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.25 - 7.25
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -112.95 hour(s)
Difference: 3.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-02-06T15:22Z
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